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供应链管理课件 第06章学习资料.ppt

发布：2025-04-18约1.23万字共34页下载文档
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Chapter6

NetworkDesigninan

UncertainEnvironmentSupplyChainManagement

(3rdEdition)

6-1

OutlineTheImpactofUncertaintyonNetworkDesignDecisionsDiscountedCashFlowAnalysisRepresentationsofUncertaintyEvaluatingNetworkDesignDecisionsUsingDecisionTreesAMTires:EvaluationofSupplyChainDesignDecisionsUnderUncertaintyMakingSupplyChainDecisionsUnderUncertaintyinPracticeSummaryofLearningObjectives2

TheImpactofUncertainty

onNetworkDesignSupplychaindesigndecisionsincludeinvestmentsinnumberandsizeofplants,numberoftrucks,numberofwarehousesThesedecisionscannotbeeasilychangedintheshort-termTherewillbeagooddealofuncertaintyindemand,prices,exchangerates,andthecompetitivemarketoverthelifetimeofasupplychainnetworkTherefore,buildingflexibilityintosupplychainoperationsallowsthesupplychaintodealwithuncertaintyinamannerthatwillmaximizeprofits3

DiscountedCashFlowAnalysisSupplychaindecisionsareinplaceforalongtime,sotheyshouldbeevaluatedasasequenceofcashflowsoverthatperiodDiscountedcashflow(DCF)analysisevaluatesthepresentvalueofanystreamoffuturecashflowsandallowsmanagerstocomparedifferentcashflowstreamsintermsoftheirfinancialvalueBasedonthetimevalueofmoney–adollartodayisworthmorethanadollartomorrow4

DiscountedCashFlowAnalysisCompareNPVofdifferentsupplychaindesignoptionsTheoptionwiththehighestNPVwillprovidethegreatestfinancialreturn5

NPVExample:TripsLogisticsHowmuchspacetoleaseinthenextthreeyearsDemand=100,000unitsRequires1,000sq.ft.ofspaceforevery1,000unitsofdemandRevenue=$1.22perunitofdemandDecisioniswhethertosignathree-yearleaseorobtainwarehousingspaceonthespotmarketThree-yearlease:cost=$1persq.ft.Spotmarket:cost=$1.20persq.ft.k=0.16

NPVExample:TripsLogisticsForleasingwarehousespaceonthespotmarket:Expectedannua

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