现代管理学201510_xg第七章战略与计划-决策.ppt

* * 囚徒困境： （1）若两人都不承认，各判1年； （2）若只有一人坦白，则坦白者释放，另一人判8年； （3）若都坦白，则各5年。 囚徒2 不坦白 坦白 囚徒1 不坦白 -1，-1 -8，0 坦白 0，-8 -5，-5 * * 举例：“剪刀.石头.布” 乙 甲 剪刀 石头 布 剪刀 0，0 -2，2 3，-3 石头 2，-2 0，0 -1，1 布 -3，3 1，-1 0，0 * * 举例：“剪刀.石头.布” 设甲出剪刀和石头的概率分别为a和b，混合战略纳什均衡是使得对方无论选择什么行动，期望支付无差异： 乙出剪刀：-2b+3(1-a-b) 乙出石头：2a-(1-a-b) 乙出布：-3a+b 纳什均衡为{(1/6,1/2,1/3); (1/6,1/2,1/3)}，标准的说法是甲、乙各自分别以1/6、1/2、1/3的概率出剪刀、石头、布的两个混合战略构成了纳什均衡。 a=1/6, b=1/2 * A procedure is a series of interrelated sequential steps that a manager can use for responding to a well-structured problem. The only real challenge is to identify the problem. Once the problem is clear, so is the procedure. A rule is an explicit statement that tells a manager what he or she ought or ought not to do. Rules are simple to follow and promote consistency. A third guide for making programmed decisions is policy. In contrast to rules, policies establish parameters for the decision maker rather than specifically stating what should or should not be done. * The four organizational levels are top, middle, and first-line managers and operative employees. At which of these levels should decisions be made? Recurring or routine decisions, programmed decisions, should be made by lower levels of management: for instance, middle-level managers make coordinating decisions with short-term implications and first-line managers make routine departmental decisions to determine what needs to be done. Nonrecurring or unique decisions, nonprogrammed decisions, should be made by top management. Operative employees make job-related decisions to determine how a job should be done. Few decisions are either fully programmed or fully nonprogrammed. These are extremes, and most decisions fall somewhere in between. Few programmed decisions can eliminate individual judgment completely, and even the most unusual decision-making situation can be helped by considering programmed routines. Whenever possible, management decisions are likely to be programmed. At the top of the organiza