temperature drops and the onset of severe avian influenza a h5n1 virus outbreaks温度下降和严重的禽流感h5n1病毒爆发的初期.pdf

Temperature Drops and the Onset of Severe Avian Influenza A H5N1 Virus Outbreaks 1,2 1 1 3 4 4 Chung-Ming Liu *, Shu-Hua Lin , Ying-Chen Chen , Katherine Chun-Min Lin , Tsung-Shu Joseph Wu , Chwan-Chuen King * 1 Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 2 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 3 Department of Public Health, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 4 Institute of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan Global influenza surveillance is one of the most effective strategies for containing outbreaks and preparing for a possible pandemic influenza. Since the end of 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI) H5N1 have caused many outbreaks in poultries and wild birds from East Asia and have spread to at least 48 countries. For such a fast and wide- spreading virulent pathogen, prediction based on changes of micro- and macro-environment has rarely been evaluated. In this study, we are developing a new climatic approach by investigating the conditions that occurred before the H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks for early predicting future HPAI outbreaks and preventing pandemic disasters. The results show a temperature drop shortly before these outbreaks in birds in each of the Eurasian regions stricken in 2005 and 2006. Dust storms, like those that struck near China’s Lake Qinghai around May 4, 2005, exacerbated the spread of this HPAI H5N1 virus, causing the deaths of a record number of wild birds and triggering the subsequent spread of H5N1. Weather monitoring could play an important ro