A CLIMATE STUDY of ABOVE and BELOW NORMAL TEMPS 一个以上的气候研究和低于正常温度.ppt

A CLIMATE STUDY of ABOVE and BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURESALONG with LONGEVITY (Is there a Pattern?) Matthew Masek (WFO North Platte, NE) OUTLINE Data Set Above and Below Normal Average Temps A look at the numbers Patterns/Signals?? Consecutive Days Above/Below Normal Average Temps 20+ Days, 25+ Days, 30+ Days By Years (pattern/signal??) By Time of Year - Months (pattern/signal??) Final Thoughts DATA SET North Platte (LBF) – (used exclusively) Existing Data Set Sept 18, 1874 to Present Used Jan 1, 1875 to June 30, 2006* (131.5 Years) Ignored Site and Equipment Changes Allowed Average T to have .5 DATA SET 30 Year Normal for Average T 1970 to 2000 Assumed representative 1870s 2000s (decades) Estimated based on partial record INSIDE THE NUMBERS Total Days in the Study 48,028 Days Average T Above Normal 25,650 Days (53.4%) Average T Below Normal 21,381 Days (44.5%) Average T Equal Normal 997 Days (2.1%) INSIDE THE NUMBERS Difference between Above and Below 4,269 Days Over 11.5 Years Remember ONLY 131.5 Years in Set That’s 9% more Above Days than Below Days How Can That Be? Departure of Average T from Normal CAN be More Significant when Below than Above February 11, 1899 High -13, Low -29 Average T = -21 degrees (normal 28 degrees) Departure from normal 49 degrees December 23, 1964 High 74, Low 34 Average T = 54 degrees (normal 24 degrees) Departure from normal 30 Degrees 279 days with departure below normal 30+? Below Ave T Above Ave T 5 years with most 1978 - 222 (60.8%) 1996 - 216 1967 - 212 1993 - 211 1951 - 206 5 years with least 1934 - 86 (23.5%) 1931 - 107 1900 - 108 1939 - 109 1938 - 110 5 years with most 1934 - 276 (75.6%) 1931 - 253 1933 - 251 1938 - 250 1939 - 248 (tied with 1900) 5 years with least 1978 - 131 (35.8%) 1996 - 139 1967 - 141 1993 - 144 1951 - 148 Trends 30s were definitely HOT Fairly constant last 10 years Signs of Global Warming (not really) Remember this is not looking at magnitude just number of days Consecutive Days Allowed fo