土木工程- 建筑 外文翻译 外文文献 英文文献 公路建设造价的未来.doc

PAGE PAGE 8 本 科 生 毕 业 设 计（论文） 外文翻译 （ 2009 届） 题目Ⅰ：Estimating Future Highway Construction Costs 2009年 2 月 19 日 Estimating Future Highway Construction Costs C. G. Wilmot, M.ASCE,1 and G. Cheng, P.E.2 Abstract: The objective of this research was to develop a model that estimates future highway construction costs in Louisiana. The model describes overall highway construction cost in terms of a highway construction cost index. The index is a composite measure of the cost of construction labor, materials, and equipment; the characteristics of contracts; and the environment in which contracts are let. Future construction costs are described in terms of predicted index values based on forecasts of the price of construction labor, materials, and equipment and the expected contract characteristics and contract environments. The contract characteristics and contract environments that are under the control of highway agency officials, can be manipulated to reflect future cost-cutting policies. Application of the model in forecasting to highway construction costs in Louisiana shows that the model closely replicates past construction costs for the period 1984–1997. When applied to forecasting future highway construction costs, the model predicts that highway construction costs in Louisiana will double between 1998 and 2015. Applying cost-cutting policies and assuming input costs are 20% less than anticipated, the model estimates highway construction costs will increase by 75% between 1998 and 2015. Key words: Highway construction; Costs; Estimation. Introduction State Departments of Transportation are required to prepare highway construction programs that describe their planned construction activity in the short term. There is usually considerable interest in the program from local authorities, politicians, and interest groups. Draft programs are typically presented to the public and to various agencies at the local, regional, state, and federal level for comment and rev