金融发展对国际收支失衡的影响 _ 资本流动的视角.pdf

摘要 在国际收支失衡日益凸显的今天，越来越多的研究着手探索导致国际收支失衡的 原因。通过对近几次较严重的经济失衡的研究和总结发现，金融市场发展的巨大差 异是存在于国际收支失衡主要经济体间的普遍现象。综合近年来金融发展理论的进 展，本文对通过金融市场发展差异来解释国际收支失衡的研究文献进行了较为详细 的论述，并将关于金融市场差异和国际收支失衡之间关系的研究路径大致分为宏观 路径和微观路径两类。在此基础上，本文从资本流动的视角出发，通过对资本的分 类建立了一个包含两类资本流动和金融发展以及国际收支失衡的相互关系的模型， 并进一步采用全球104 个国家1995 年到2009 年的数据进行了动态面板回归分析， 从而从理论上和经验上同时证明了金融市场发展对国际收支失衡的显著影响及两者 反向变动的关系。 关键词： 国际收支失衡； 金融发展； 资本流动； 国际分工 ABSTRACT In today’s world with increasingly prominent of global economic imbalances, more and more research turn to explore the reason of global imbalances. Through researches on recent severe economic imbalances, we found that it is the vast difference between developments of financial markets that exists in the major economies with imbalance phenomenon. With the progress of the theory of financial development in recent years, this paper made a detailed summarization of papers on seeking the cause of global imbalance from the view of financial development gap, and classified the research method into two: macro path and micro path. On the basis of above researches and conclusions and from the perspective of capital flows, this paper established a model which contains the interactive relationship of capital outflow and inflow, financial development, and economic imbalance, by classify capital into two types, and finished dynamic panel data regression analysis with the global data of 104 countries since1995 to 2009, afterwards proved the significant reverse change relationship between financial development and economic imbalance theoretically and empirically. KEY WORDS: Imbalance of Payments, Financial Development, Capital Flow, International division of labor 目录 摘要 - 1 - ABSTRACT - 2 - 目录 - 3 - 一、 引言1 二、 文献综述 3 (一) 理论发展 5 (二)