the impact of matching vaccine strains and post-sars public health efforts on reducing influenza-associated mortality among the elderly匹配的影响疫苗株和post-sars公共卫生努力减少老年人与流感相关的死亡率.pdf

The Impact of Matching Vaccine Strains and Post-SARS Public Health Efforts on Reducing Influenza-Associated Mortality among the Elderly 1,2 1,3 1 2 1,4 Ta-Chien Chan , Chuhsing Kate Hsiao , Chang-Chun Lee , Po-Huang Chiang , Chuan-Liang Kao , Chung-Ming Liu5,6, Chwan-Chuen King1,3* 1 Institute of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 2 Division of Health Policy Research, Institute of Population Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan, 3 Department of Public Health, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 4 Department of Clinical Laboratory Science and Medical Biotechnology, College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 5 Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 6 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan Abstract Public health administrators do not have effective models to predict excess influenza-associated mortality and monitor viral changes associated with it. This study evaluated the effect of matching/mismatching vaccine strains, type/subtype pattern changes in Taiwan’s influenza viruses, and the impact of post-SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) public health efforts on excess influenza-associated mortalities among the elderly. A negative binomial model was developed to estimate Taiwan’s monthly influenza-associated mortality among the elderly. We calculated three winter and annual excess influenza- associated mortalities [pneumonia and influenza (PI), respiratory and circulatory, and all-cause] from