apparent temperature and air pollution vs. elderly population mortality in metro vancouver明显的温度和空气污染与老年人口死亡率在地铁温哥华.pdf

Apparent Temperature and Air Pollution vs. Elderly Population Mortality in Metro Vancouver ´ Goran Krstic* Fraser Health, Environmental Health Services, New Westminster, British Columbia, Canada Abstract Background: Meteorological conditions and air pollution in urban environments have been associated with general population and elderly mortality, showing seasonal variation. Objectives: This study is designed to evaluate the relationship between apparent temperature (AT) and air pollution (PM2.5) vs. mortality in elderly population of Metro Vancouver. Methods: Statistical analyses are performed on moving sum daily mortality rates vs. moving average AT and PM2.5 in 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 7-day models for all seasons, warm temperatures above 15uC, and cold temperatures below 10uC. Results: Approximately 37% of the variation in all-season mortality from circulatory and respiratory causes can be explained by the variation in 7-day moving average apparent temperature (r2 = 0.37, p,0.001). Although the analytical results from air pollution models show increasingly better prediction ability of longer time-intervals (r2 = 0.012, p,0.001 in a 7-day model), a very weak negative association between elderly mortality and air pollution is observed. Conclusions: Apparent temperature is associated with mortality from respiratory and circulatory causes in elderly population of Metro Vancouver. In a changing climate, one may anticipate to observe potential health impacts from the projected high- and particularly from the low-temperature extremes. ´ Citation: Krstic G (2011) Apparent Temperature and Air Pollution vs. Elderly Population Mortality in Metro Vancouver. PLoS ONE 6(9): e25101. doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0025101