assessing the potential of a candidate dengue vaccine with mathematical modeling评估潜在的候选人登革热疫苗与数学建模.pdf

Policy Platform Assessing the Potential of a Candidate Dengue Vaccine with Mathematical Modeling WHO-VMI Dengue Vaccine Modeling Group* Background chimeric yellow fever dengue vaccine— Although there is no evidence that commenced Phase II and Phase IIB vaccine-derived immunity could lead to Dengue viruses are single-stranded pos- clinical trials in 2009, and Phase III trials increased severity or transmissibility upon itive-sense RNA viruses (genus Flavivirus, in December of 2010 [17–21]. Preliminary infection, given the immunopathogenesis family Flaviviridae) that are the etiological results have demonstrated significant im- of dengue, this possibility should be agents of dengue fever (DF). More than 2 munogenicity in all age groups after three planned for. billion people live in dengue-endemic vaccine doses over a 12-month period. Population-level effects, whether related areas [1–3], and dengue virus infections Immunogenicity increased steadily with to ADE or not, can be analyzed with account for an estimated 500,000 episodes each dose and was higher in individuals mathematical models. Since it is not of severe disease each year [4]. A recent with previous flavivirus immunity [21]. A feasible to enroll and randomize popula- review suggests that these may be under- tetravalent dengue vaccine (TDV) candi- tions to dengue vaccine or placebo, estimates [5]. Despite the fact that the date is currently the preferred formulation mat