correlated individual differences and choice prediction相关的个体差异和选择的预测.pdf

Games 2011, 2, 16-20; doi:10.3390/g2010016 OPEN ACCESS games ISSN 2073-4336 /journal/games Short Note Correlated Individual Differences and Choice Prediction Luke Lindsay Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Blümlisalpstrasse 10, 8006 Zurich, Switzerland; E-Mail: luke.lindsay@econ.uzh.ch Received: 17 December 2010; in revised form: 14 January 2011 / Accepted: 26 January 2011 / Published: 7 February 2011 Abstract: This note briefly summarizes the consequences of adding correlated individual differences to the best baseline model in the Games competition, I-SAW. I find evidence that the traits of an individual are correlated, but refining I-SAW to capture these correlations does not significantly improve the model’s accuracy when predicting average behavior. Keywords: individual differences; choice prediction; I-SAW; modeling correlation 1. Introduction Are individual differences correlated and can modeling them as such increase the accuracy of a model’s predictions? Correlations between individual differences was one of the features of the model I entered in the Games choice prediction competition (CPC). This note briefly summarizes the consequences of adding correlated individual differences to the I-SAW model, the best baseline model in the CPC. It is assumed the reader is familiar with the experiments, I-SAW model, and competition described by Erev et al. [1]. One of the regularities observed in the results of the CPC est