食品饮料行业非酒类食品饮料月度专题：如何展望2025年原奶周期？-241227-银河证券-16页.pdf

⚫



⚫





⚫

⚫

⚫

⚫

⚫

供给需求供需缺口

奶牛存栏进口数量干乳制品产

同比成母牛存栏同比单产同比原奶产量同比同比国内总供给液态奶产量同比同比国内总需求需求-供给

（全牛）（还原）量（还原）

万头%万头%千克%万吨%万吨%万吨万吨%万吨%万吨万吨

20201043-0.1%4292.3%83006.4%35307.0%7836.3%431325992.4%1448-0.4%4047-266

202110944.9%48913.8%87004.8%37787.0%102030.2%479828439.4%15094.3%4352-446

202211616.1%430-12.0%92005.7%40276.6%828-18.8%485529252.9%15412.1%4466-389

202312306.0%49615.3%94002.2%42816.3%622-24.9%49032860-2.2%15611.3%4421-482

2024E1181-4.0%478-3.5%95882.0%4217-1.5%485-22.0%47022803-2.0%15851.5%4388-314

2025E1158-2.0%