《微观经济学》第12章 不确定性-英文教学课件（非AI生成）.ppt

ChapterTwelveUncertainty1

UncertaintyisPervasiveWhatisuncertainineconomicsystems?tomorrow’spricesfuturewealthfutureavailabilityofcommoditiespresentandfutureactionsofotherpeople.2

UncertaintyisPervasiveWhatarerationalresponsestouncertainty?buyinginsurance(health,life,auto)aportfolioofcontingentconsumptiongoods.3

StatesofNaturePossiblestatesofNature:“caraccident”(a)“nocaraccident”(na).Accidentoccurswithprobability?a,doesnotwithprobability?na;

?a+?na=1.Accidentcausesalossof$L.4

ContingenciesAcontractimplementedonlywhenaparticularstateofNatureoccursisstate-contingent.E.g.theinsurerpaysonlyifthereisanaccident.5

ContingenciesAstate-contingentconsumptionplanisimplementedonlywhenaparticularstateofNatureoccurs.E.g.takeavacationonlyifthereisnoaccident.6

State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsEach$1ofaccidentinsurancecosts?.Consumerhas$mofwealth.Cnaisconsumptionvalueintheno-accidentstate.Caisconsumptionvalueintheaccidentstate.7

State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCa8

State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCa2017Astate-contingentconsumption

with$17consumptionvalueintheaccidentstateand$20consumptionvalueintheno-accidentstate.9

State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsWithoutinsurance,Ca=m-LCna=m.10

State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.11

State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-?K.Ca=m-L-?K+K=m-L+(1-?)K.12

State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-?K.Ca=m-L-?K+K=m-L+(1-?)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-?)13

State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-?K.Ca=m-L-?K+K=m-L+(1-?)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-?)AndCna=m-?(Ca-m+L)/(1-?)14

State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-?K.Ca=m-L-?K+K=m-L+(1-?)K.SoK=(Ca