Bowling with a Crystal Ball一个水晶球，保龄球.ppt

bowling with a crystal ball Yoram Solomon Association for Strategic Planning 2008 National Conference what is the problem today? Short-term focus of companies Innovation is risky Innovation is hard The role of people is understated The probability of success is low Limited strategists’ accountability agenda Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moore’s law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability agenda Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moore’s law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability three phases of innovation agenda Three phases of radical innovation From market focus to technology focus Why Moore’s law will never level off Predicting technology trends Technology meets consumption Types of disruptions Probability, politics, and the strategist accountability future trends Local Forces Competitors Customers Suppliers / Partners Corporate Global forces Politics Economy Society Nature Technology disruptive technologies technology disrupts a new market technology disrupts multiple markets visionary technological trend prediction April 19, 1965, in Volume 38 of “Electronics” magazine Title: “Cramming more components onto integrated circuits” Author: Director of the RD Labs, Fairchild semiconductors Sub-title: “with unit cost falling as the number of components per circuit rises, by 1975 economics may dictate squeezing as many as 65,000 components on a single silicon chip” The author was Dr. Gordon E. Moore. Only 7 years earlier, Jack Kilby of Texas Instruments invented the Integrated Circuit (won Noble prize in Physics in 2000 for that invention) Today, a 90nm, 5x5mm IC holds over 3 million logical gates moore’s law semiconductor process trends hard di