经管类书籍运筹学-决策分析课件.ppt

Chapter 12. Decision Analysis;问题回顾;什么是决策;什么是决策;决策的主要特征;决策的过程;决策的要素;决策的要素;决策的要素;决策的分类;决策的分类;Some Examples;Some Examples;Some Examples;Some Examples;Some Examples;什么是决策分析;什么是决策分析;A Case Study: The Goferbroke Company Problem (Section 12.1)(案例研究：高富布鲁克公司问题) Decision Criteria (Section 12.2)(决策准则) Decision Trees (Section 12.3)(决策树);Sensitivity Analysis with Decision Trees (Section 12.4)(使用决策树进行敏感性分析) Checking Whether to Obtain More Information (Section 12.5)(检查是否需要获得更多的信息);Using New Information to Update the Probabilities (Section 12.6)(使用新的信息更新概率) Decision Tree to Analyze a Sequence of Decisions (Section 12.7)(用决策树分析系列决策问题);Sensitivity Analysis with a Sequence of Decisions (Section 12.8)(系列决策问题的敏感性分析) Using Utilities to Better Reflect the Values of Payoffs (Section 12.9)(用效用更好地反映收益的价值);概率论基础;概率论基础;概率论基础;概率论基础;概率论基础;概率论基础;概率论基础;The Goferbroke Company Problem;Drilling for oil on this tract would require an investment of about $100,000. (在这块地上钻探石油需要大约10万美元的投资) If the tract contains oil, it is estimated that the net revenue generated would be approximately $800,000. (如果这块地蕴含石油，估计将带来大约80万美元的净收入) Another oil company has offered to purchase the tract of land for $90,000. (另一个石油公司愿以9万美元购买这块土地);;Prospective Profits;Prior Probabilities;Payoff Table (Profit in $Thousands);The Maximax Criterion;The Maximax Criterion;The Maximin Criterion;The Maximin Criterion;The Maximum Likelihood Criterion;The Maximum Likelihood Criterion;Bayes’ Decision Rule;Bayes’ Decision Rule;Bayes’ Decision Rule;Bayes’ Decision Rule;Bayes’ Decision Rule;决策准则小结;决策准则小结;Decision Trees;Decision Trees;Decision Tree for Goferbroke;Using TreePlan;Using TreePlan;Using TreePlan;Using TreePlan;To replace a node (such as the terminal node of the drill branch in F3) by a different type of node (e.g., an event node), click on the cell containing the node, choose Decision Tree again from the Tools menu, and select “Change to event node”. (要用一个不同类别的节点[如事件节点]替换已有的节点[如F3单元格中“drill”分支的终止节点]，可以单击包含该节点的单元格，从“Tools”菜单再次选择“Decision