1409号超强台风“威马逊”强度及路径异常的成因分析.doc

1409号超强台风“威马逊”强度及路径异常的成因分析 李荔珊 高士欣 余丹丹 （61741部队） 摘 要也是进一步维持和加强的必要条件。关键词：超强台风“”；西太平洋副高The 1409 super typhoon Wimason strength and path analysis of the causes of abnormal LI Lishan GAO Shinxin YU Dandan (Unit 61741) Use of tropical cyclone warning message data, NCEP 1白1?t grid point data and AVHRR satellite remote sensing SST data, starting from the height field, vorticity field, humidity field, wind field and SST, diagnostic analysis of super typhoon Wimason offshore enhancement and shift speed changing reasons. The results show that, Wimason enhancement is directly related to the East South Asia high and the subtropical high, the positive vorticity advection and vertical transport stream and vorticity is an important reason leading to enhancement of Wimason; Wimason enhancement is also closely related to the South China Sea summer monsoon activity, abundant water vapor supply is direct the reason Wimason enhancement of South China Sea summer monsoon abrupt enhancement, is the essential reason for the Wimason enhancement of. In addition, a necessary condition for the warm ocean, weak vertical shear of zonal wind is the Wimason strength to further maintain and strengthen the. Ramasun belongs to non uniformly accelerated westward into the South China Sea Tropical Cyclone, subtropical high ridge non-uniform strengthening and extending westward is the cause of the main reason Wimason non uniformly accelerated westward. 0 引言 中国是世界上受热带气旋影响最为严重的国家之一，平均有16%的热带气旋移到中国沿海时急剧增强[1]。对于近海突然增强的热带气旋来说，预报难度大，常因防范不及而造成十分严重的灾害。近年来国内外在热带气旋强度变化研究方面取得了一定的进展，研究表明，中国近海热带气旋强度突变具有复杂而显著的非线性变化特征[2]，既与其自身的内部结构有关[3、4]，也受环境场的影响，环境风垂直切变[5]、冷空气侵入[6]、海面温度[7]、水汽通量和潜热输送[8]等都是影响近海热带气旋强度变化的重要因子。但由于观测资料不足及热带气旋强度变化的物理机制尚未弄清，热带气旋强度变化仍是大气科学领域至今尚未解决的重要科学问题之一[9]。 1409号超强台风“威马逊”强度强、风力大，先后三次登陆我国，对我国华南沿海地区造成了巨大的经济损失和严重的人员伤亡。“威马逊”16日上午进入南海后，向西北方向稳定移动，移速多变，在向海南岛靠近的过程中急剧增强4次的NCEP／NCAR再分析资料(水平分辨率为1°×1°，垂直方向为1000 hPa到100 hPa共11层)以及avhrr卫星遥感海温资料，对“威马逊”移速变化及近海强度急剧增强的原因进行天气和动力学诊断分析，以期为今后准确预报我国近海热带气旋强度提供一些有益的参考。 1 超强台风“威马逊