1409号超强台风“威马逊”强度与路径异常成因分析.doc

1409号超强台风“威马逊”强度及路径异常的成因分析 李荔珊 高士欣 余丹丹 （61741部队） 摘 要 利用热带气旋警报报文资料、NCEP1°×1°格点资料以及avhrr卫星遥感海温资料，从高度场、涡度场、湿度场、风场和海温场出发，诊断分析超强台风“威马逊”近海强度急剧增强和移速多变的原因。结果表明，“威马逊”强度急剧增强与南亚高压东进及副高西伸直接有关，正涡度平流和涡量垂直输送是导致“威马逊”强度急剧增强的重要原因；“威马逊”强度急剧增强还与南海夏季风活动密切相关，充沛的水汽供应是“威马逊”强度急剧增强的直接原因，南海夏季风突然增强是“威马逊”强度急剧增强的根本原因。此外，暖洋面、弱纬向风垂直切变也是“威马逊”强度进一步维持和加强的必要条件。“威马逊”属于非均匀加速西行进入南海的热带气旋，副高脊非均匀加强西伸是导致“威马逊”非均匀加速西行的主要原因。 关键词：超强台风“威马逊”；西太平洋副热带高压；强度急剧增强；非均匀加速 The 1409 super typhoon Wimason strength and path analysis of the causes of abnormal LI Lishan GAO Shinxin YU Dandan (Unit 61741) Use of tropical cyclone warning message data, NCEP 1°×1° grid point data and AVHRR satellite remote sensing SST data, starting from the height field, vorticity field, humidity field, wind field and SST, diagnostic analysis of super typhoon Wimason offshore enhancement and shift speed changing reasons. The results show that, Wimason enhancement is directly related to the East South Asia high and the subtropical high, the positive vorticity advection and vertical transport stream and vorticity is an important reason leading to enhancement of Wimason; Wimason enhancement is also closely related to the South China Sea summer monsoon activity, abundant water vapor supply is direct the reason Wimason enhancement of South China Sea summer monsoon abrupt enhancement, is the essential reason for the Wimason enhancement of. In addition, a necessary condition for the warm ocean, weak vertical shear of zonal wind is the Wimason strength to further maintain and strengthen the. Ramasun belongs to non uniformly accelerated westward into the South China Sea Tropical Cyclone, subtropical high ridge non-uniform strengthening and extending westward is the cause of the main reason Wimason non uniformly accelerated westward. 0 引言 中国是世界上受热带气旋影响最为严重的国家之一，平均有16%的热带气旋移到中国沿海时急剧增强[1]。对于近海突然增强的热带气旋来说，预报难度大，常因防范不及而造成十分严重的灾害。近年来国内外在热带气旋强度变化研究方面取得了一定的进展，研究表明，中国近海热带气旋强度突变具有复杂而显著的非线性变化特征[2]，既与其自身的内部结构有关[3、4]，也受环境场的影响，环境风垂直切变[5]、冷空气侵入[6]、海面温度[7]、水汽通量和潜热输送[8]等