the global transmission and control of influenza流感的全球传播和控制.pdf

The Global Transmission and Control of Influenza 1,2. 1 . 3 1,2 1,2 Eben Kenah , Dennis L. Chao * , Laura Matrajt , M. Elizabeth Halloran , Ira M. Longini Jr. 1 Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America, 2 Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America, 3 Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America Abstract New strains of influenza spread around the globe via the movement of infected individuals. The global dynamics of influenza are complicated by different patterns of influenza seasonality in different regions of the world. We have released an open-source stochastic mathematical model of the spread of influenza across 321 major, strategically located cities of the world. Influenza is transmitted between cities via infected airline passengers. Seasonality is simulated by increasing the transmissibility in each city at the times of the year when influenza has been observed to be most prevalent. The spatiotemporal spread of pandemic influenza can be understood through clusters of global transmission and links between them, which we identify using the epidemic percolation network (EPN) of the model. We use the model to explain the observed global pattern of spread for pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009–2010 (pandemic H1N1 2009) and to examine possible global patterns of spread for future pandemics depen