基于省级数据的技术进步偏向测算及分析-应用经济学·数量经济学专业论文.docx

暨南 暨南大学硕士学位论文 万方数据 万方数据 摘要 本文利用基于 CES 生产函数的新古典经济学框架，建立计量经济学模型，使用我国 29 个省份 1990-2012 年的数据对联立方程采用系统估计法进行测算，同时得到了要素替代 弹性，劳动增强型以及资本增强型技术进步速率。测算结果表明，各省份劳动与资本的要 素替代弹性均位于 0 到 1 之间，均值约为 0.49。东中西部地区要素替代弹性均值依次降低， 这个结果验证了要素替代弹性与地区经济发展水平的关系，证实了德拉格兰德维尔假说的 正确性。对于技术进步偏向来说，在生产过程中北京和上海属于劳动使用型技术进步，其 他各省均属于资本使用型技术进步。全国范围来说，劳动增强型技术进步速率平均为 10.36%，资本增强型技术进步速率平均为-0.36%，就各省来说，部分中东部的资本效率增 长率为负数，北京上海以及一些中西部省份资本效率增长率为正数，说明改革开放后，国 家不同的地区政策及地区自身特点导致了资本效率呈现不同的地域分布特点。随后通过对 比各省劳动收入份额变动与技术进步偏向测算结果，结合经济理论确认技术进步偏向才是 劳动收入份额变动的根本原因。 关键词：技术进步偏向；要素替代弹性；资本效率；劳动收入份额 I Abstract Since the reform and opening up, the labor income share of the whole output is decreasing in almost all the provinces. This paper constructs a neoclassical economic model based on the CES production function, uses the 29 provinces data over period 1990-2012 to measure the biased technical progress and gets the elasticity of substitution, labor efficiency and capital efficiency of each province. The result indicates that the elasticity of substitution is between 0 and 1 and its mean is 0.49. The elasticity of substitution of East, Mid and West region is different which is related with the regional economic situation. This paper also tests the correctness of the De La Grandville Hypothesis. For Beijing and Shanghai, the technical progress is biased in favor of labor. For the other regions, the technical progress is biased in favor of capital. From the national wide aspect, the mean labor augmenting technical progress of all the provinces is about 10.36%, the mean capital augmenting technical progress of all the provinces is about -0.36%. From the provinces aspect, most developed provinces’ capital efficiency is below 0 and some developing provinces’ capital efficiency is beyond 0. It indicates that after the reform and opening up, different regional policies and the local conditions cause the differences of the capital efficiency between all the provinces. After the comparison of the fluctuation labor income share and the type of tech