基于中尺度和微尺度的复杂地形大风预报方法研究.PDF

Cover Story 封面报道 基于中尺度和微尺度的复杂地形大风 预报方法研究 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 庄文兵 章涵 王建 田浩 赵建平 何君 金莹 （1 国网新疆电力公司电力科学研究院，乌鲁木齐 830011；2 国网电力科学研究院武汉南瑞有限责任公司，武汉 430074； 3 象辑知源（武汉）科技有限公司，北京 100084） 摘要：复杂地形气象预报误差主要与模型对地形特征的准确描述、对物理动力过程的假设有关。采用融合中尺度数值天 气预报系统（WRF）和微尺度风速模拟模型（CalMet）的方案，既能考虑大尺度、中尺度和微尺度上的动力学过程，又 能最大程度上体现局部地形影响。融合预报结果与中尺度预报结果的对比分析表明，融合预报方法能更好地模拟复杂地 形的大风过程，对于复杂地形地区大风风灾预测、预警和分析有重要的参考价值和指导意义。 关键词：中尺度，复杂地形，CalMet，风速预报 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2017.02.002 Study of Wind Forecasts Based on Numerical Modeling and Downscale Diagnostics 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 Zhuang Wenbin , Zhang Han , Wang Jian , Tian Hao , Zhao Jianping , He Jun , Jin Ying (1 State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Research Institute, Urumqi 830011 2 NaRi Group Corporation/State Grid China Electric Power Research Institute, Wuhan 430074 3 Xiangjizhiyuan (Wuhan) Technology Co., Ltd, Beijing 100084) Abstract: The error of meteorological forecast for complex terrain is mainly related to the model accurateness for describing terrain features and the physical dynamic processes. Integrating the mesoscale numerical weather forecasting system WRF and the CalMet model on micro-scale wind velocity simulation, it may account the dynamic processes on large scale, mesoscale and micro-scale, also may describe the local terrain effect upto the maximum extent. The results of the integrating model comparing to the mesoscale prediction show that the integrating forecasting method has a better capability of predicting the gale in complex terrain, and gives important reference and a significant guidance for forecasting, early warning and analying the windstorm in