德意志银行2011年中国经济概况和市场策略.pdf

January 2011 China/Hong Kong Country Book 2011 2011 China market strategy We believe that the inflation trajectory in 2011 will be the single most important macro driver for market performance. We expect inflation to stay uncomfortably high in most of 1H11 (in the range of 4-5% yoy), but it will likely decline towards 3-4% in 2H due to the impact of monetary tightening and a more favourable base effect. High inflation in 1H tends to depress the market as it generates fear of policy tightening. An easing of inflation in 2H should justify a market rerating as policy uncertainties are removed. For the year as a whole, we expect MSCI China to rise 15% from its level at the end of 2010. Our sector strategy for the year will change according to the inflation profile. During periods in 1H when inflation remains high and even rises, we will prefer sectors that are less vulnerable to credit tightening, rate hikes, and price intervention . In particular, we prefer large banks, insurance, commercial properties, retailing, equipment, IT services, and tourism. We will be cautious on IPPs, coal, smaller banks, oil and gas, and highly leveraged developers. When inflation begins to abate, which we expect to start in the middle of 2011, the victims of