德意志银行：2010中国省份经济研究.pdf

s e u s s I t n e r r Chinas provinces u C February 25, 2010 Digging one layer deeper a i Important structural changes are happening in China which are not s A visible when looking at nationwide figures only. High growth is shifting from the coast to inland provinces and low-cost labour supply is declining as regional development initiatives – like the “Go West” strategy – are bearing fruit. This will reinforce structural change in coastal regions towards higher value-added products while labour-intensive manufacturing moves to inland provinces. Pinning hopes on China to take the place of the US consumer is asking too much. While private consumption offers some catch-up potential especially in China‟s non-coastal provinces this will not be enough to offset the loss in demand from the US. Moreover, much of the additional demand for consumer goods will be served by local companies. Still, opportunities exist in inner and coastal China. Aside from catch-up potential in private consumption and labour cost advantages over coastal areas, some inland provinces may serve as springboards to neighbouring countries like Yunnan province for Vietnam or some west