德意志银行-亚洲经济解析.pdf

Deutsche Bank Research Asia Economics Date 9 June 2017 Asia Economics Monthly Food weighs on inflation, temporarily EM Asia’s headline CPI inflation has been muted of late, thanks largely to a sharp fall in food price inflation. Given the latter’s volatility, we warn against policy complacency, especially as the region’s negative output closes. China: We expect only a moderate slowdown ahead, as the property cycle remains strong. In contrast to this year, we expect inflation rising above 3% in 2018, constraining the PBoC. Hong Kong: We have revised up our 2018 growth forecast significantly, but taken 2019 down as we expect falling property prices and rising ex-housing inflation to erode consumption growth. India: Lower-than-expected inflation and downward revision to its outlook turns RBI less hawkish. We think an extended pause in policy rates is preferred, however, at this juncture. Indonesia: We expect steady growth, with some upside risks to inflation. However, we think rate hikes from BI would help bring inflation back down. Malaysia: We raised our 2017 GDP growth by 30bps to 4.8%, following an impressive Q1 GDP report. Although core inflation appears to have bottomed, its rebound remains sufficiently modest, likely keeping BNM rates steady. Philippines: As the economy normalizes and growth slows after last year’s elections, a moderation in inflation momentum may delay rate hikes by BSP. Singapore: Although Q2 GDP growth might disappoint, its rebound in 2H is likely to guide this year’s growth 0.5ppts higher vs. 2016 to 2.5%, in our view.