基于Z-Score模型对电子行业上市公司的信用风险预警研究毕业论文.doc

毕业论文 （2010届） 基于Z-Score模型对电子行业上市公司的信用风险预警研究 摘 要 改革开放以来，中国经济发生了翻天覆地的变化，特别是加入WTO以来，经济发展尤为迅速，中国经济在世界经济中扮演着越来越重要的角色。在中国经济全面发展过程中，证券市场作为其重要的组成部分，发展速度及成果也有目共睹。上市公司作为证券市场的基础，在现代经济中起着举足轻重的作用。上市公司的健康发展对我国的经济发展至关重要，而上市公司在各个方面都存在着不确定性，想要提高自身的发展水平与竞争力，需要在风险管理方面达到更高的水平，需要建立风险评估体系，对风险进行预控，预防和化解风险的发生，并将风险造成的损失降至最低程度。 本文旨从信用风险预警角度出发，选择对我国经济发展有这重要意义的电子行业为研究对象，通过对该行业上市公司财务数据的调查整理，运用Z-Score模型分析该行业上市公司的信用风险状况，并对Z-Score模型进行修正，提高预警的准确率，为上市公司在风险预警方面提供参考。 关键词：信用风险；Z-Score模型；电子行业Since the reform and opening up, Chinas economy has undergone earth-shaking changes, especially since joining the WTO, economic development, and China’s economy is rapidly in the world economy plays a more and more important role. In Chinas economy, the overall development of the securities market as its main component, the speed of development and the achievement also evident. The listed company as securities market in modern economy foundation plays a pivotal role. The healthy development of the listed company to the economic development of our country, and listed companies is vital in every aspect exists uncertainty, want to improve their development level and competitiveness in risk management, need to achieve higher level, need to establish the risk assessment system of risks, prevent and dissolve the risk is realized, and the occurrence of the risk loss is reduced to the minimum extent. This article from the credit risk early warning decree Angle, choose to our country economy development has the important meaning of the electronics industry as the research object, and through the industry survey of listed company financial data, using Z - Score tidy the listed company of this profession model analysis, and the situation of credit risk to Z - Score model is revised, improve the warning of the listed company, for accuracy in providing reference warning of the risks. Keywords: Credit risk; Z-Score; Electronic industry目 录 1 Z-Score模型概述 1 1.1 Z-Score模型的产生与发展 1 1.2 Z-Score模型的应用及意义 3 2 运用Z-Score模型对我国电子行业信用风险进行