我国外汇储备管理与汇率管理知识分析规模文件.doc

PAGE / NUMPAGES 我国外汇储备规模适度性研究 摘 要 自改革开放以来，我国外汇储备迅速积存，是增长速度最快的宏观经济指标。截止2011年末，我国已拥有超过3万亿美元的外汇储备，是世界最大外汇储备国。高额的外汇储备意味着我国对国外产品保有充足的购买力以及对我国的金融安全有充分的资金保证；但同时也意味着高昂的机会成本和巨大的汇率风险。如何界定外汇储备规模适度性，对我国来讲有着重要的现实意义。 国内外众多学者对外汇储备规模适度性做出了研究探讨。分析外汇储备规模的方法要紧有三种：比例分析法、需求函数法及成本收益法。本文运用成本收益法中的Agarwal模型以及基于货币政策目标的回归分析方法，分不对我国的外汇储备规模适度性进行了测算和实证分析，结果均显示我国的外汇储备已超出适度规模，同时差距有逐年扩大的趋势。本文最后针对此问题提出了若干政策建议。 本文共分为五章。第一章为绪论，交待文章的研究背景、写作思路等。第二章为理论分析部分，介绍了国内外对论题的研究与理论成果。第三章介绍了我国外汇储备的现状、形成缘故及经济阻碍。第四章为实证部分，运用两种方法对我国外汇储备规模适度性进行了测算与实证分析。第五章为结尾部分，总结全文并提出政策建议。 关键字：外汇储备； 规模适度性； 进口。 Abstract Since the implementation of the reform and opening up policy, China’s official foreign exchange reserve has been accumulated at a staggering rate, rendering it the fastest growing macroeconomic indicator. Until the end of the year 2011, China had possessed the world’s largest foreign exchange reserve which was worth over 3 trillion US dollars. Foreign exchange reserve of such a tremendous amount indicates that China has sufficient purchasing power in the international market and is fully capable of defending its financial market. However it means that China is suffering from enormous opportunity cost and severe exchange-rate risk in the meantime. Therefore, defining an appropriate scale of the foreign exchange reserve has a critical and practical significance for China. A vast number of scholars from home and abroad have done plenty research on the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserve. It is widely accepted that there are three major approaches: proportional analysis, demand function and cost-revenue analysis. This essay utilizes Agarwal model which is based on the cost-revenue analysis and regression analysis based on the goals of monetary policy to calculate and examine the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserve respectively. The results both illustrates that the foreign exchange reserve has already exceeded the upper limit of proper amount and the gap has been continuously widening. A few policy su