计划风险管理中英文外文文献翻译.doc

计划风险管理中英文外文文献翻译 (含：英文原文及中文译文) 英文原文 Schedule Risk Management INTRODUCTION Schedule risks are both threats and opportunities to the success of a project. Threats tend to reduce the success of meeting the project goals and opportunities tend to increase the success. Risk management is the process of identifying, analyzing, qualifying and quantifying the risks, and developing a plan to deal with them. This is routinely done during baseline schedule development as well as during schedule updates. Implementation of risk management starts with early planning in both budgetary cost estimating and preliminary master scheduling in order to determine budgets and schedules with a comfortable level of confidence in the completion date and final cost. While there are entire volumes addressing risk in construction projects, it is important to note that the issue of time-related risk has not been universally incorporated into planning. Assessing cost risk is more intuitive, and very often addressed through the use of heuristics, so it has become more of a standard of the industry than time-related risk management. Most estimators will automatically add a contingency to a cost estimate to cover the risk of performance based on the type of project and circumstances pertaining to the undertaking of the project. Estimators estimate this contingency using their own rules of thumb developed over years of estimating as well as estimate in manuals , such as Means’ Cost Data or Cost Works. However, when it comes to developing the critical path method (CPM) schedules, risk management is often overlooked or underestimated. The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of risk management and the assessment process as well as best practices for incorporation of risk management into CPM schedule development and maintenance. For more detailed information about schedule risk, the reader should refer to risk management books, particularly those that focus on project management. One of the