基于逼近中心式灰色模型的公路工程造价指数预测 .doc

东北石油大学本科生毕业设计（论文）PAGE PAGE III摘 要在市场经济体制下，公路工程造价指数预测作为公路工程造价管理体系不可缺少的组成部分，不仅是招标方与投标方保持竞争优势和取得盈利的关键，也是政府进行宏观调控和公路工程建造市场其他相关利益主体进行投资决策及制定发展战略的重要依据。本文首先综述了公路工程造价指数和灰色预测相关理论，在此基础上针对传统灰色GM(1,1)模型进行公路工程造价指数预测时精度较低，偏差较大的问题，本研究提出一种改变背景值的方法——逼近中心式灰色模型来进行公路工程造价指数的预测，最后通过辽宁本溪—辽阳—辽中高速公路的总价格指数预测验证该模型的可行性。合理的公路工程造价指数可以更好的控制公路工程造价，可以使我国公路工程造价管理尽快缩短与国际的差距，实现与国际接轨。关键词：灰色预测；公路工程；造价指数AbstractIn the market economy system, the highway engineering cost index forecasting of highway engineering cost management system as the indispensable part, not only is the parameter and the tenderer remain competitive advantage and profit, but also the key government macro-regulation and highway engineering construction market other stakeholders investment decisions and develop strategy is an important basis. This paper reviews the highway engineering cost index and gray prediction theory, based on traditional grey model GM (1,1) for highway engineering cost low precision index、deviation.This study proposed changes the background value method - the approximate center type grey model for highway engineering cost index, Through the Liaoning Benxi - Liaoyang - Liaozhong highway of total price index forecasting verify the feasibility of the model, and greatly improve the highway engineering cost index forecasting precision. The reasonable cost index of highway engineering can be better control of highway engineering cost, can make China highway engineering cost management as soon as possible and international gap, shorten with international standards.Key words： Grey forecasting; Highway engineering; Cost index.目 录 TOC \o 1-2 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc265157618 第1章 绪 论 PAGEREF _Toc265157618 \h 1HYPERLINK \l _Toc265157619 1.1 研究背景及问题提出 PAGEREF _Toc265157619 \h 1HYPERLINK \l _Toc265157620 1.2 研究目的和研究意义 PAGEREF _Toc265157620 \h 1HYPERLINK \l _Toc265157621 1.3 国内外研究现状及评述 PAGEREF _Toc265157621 \h 2HYPERLINK \l _Toc265157622 1.4 研究内容与研究方法 PAGEREF _Toc265157622 \h 4HYPERLINK \l _Toc265157623 第2章 公