项目的不确定性盒风险分析.ppt

NPV(IRR)=－971(P/F,IRR,1)－319(P/F,IRR,2)(P/F,IRR,16)+(300+60)(P/F,IRR,16)=0240(P/F,IRR,3)+(1112－759－101)(P/F,IRR,3)－60(P/F,IRR,4)+(1390－919－126)(F/A,IRR,3)∴IRR=17.3%12341.销售收入：+10％0123451516971319240122375911160152991913915299191391529919139152991960300139NPV(IRR)=－971(P/F,IRR,1)－319(P/F,IRR,2)0160(P/F,IRR,4)+(1529－919－139)(F/A,IRR,3)03∴IRR=25.2%05240(P/F,IRR,3)+(1223－759－111)(P/F,IRR,3)02(P/F,IRR,16)+(300+60)(P/F,IRR,16)=0042.销售收入：－10％012345151697131924010017599160125191911312519191131251919113125191911360300240(P/F,IRR,3)+(1001－759－91)(P/F,IRR,3)NPV(IRR)=－971(P/F,IRR,1)－319(P/F,IRR,2)60(P/F,IRR,4)+(1251－919－113)(F/A,IRR,3)(P/F,IRR,16)+(300+60)(P/F,IRR,16)=0∴IRR=9.1%3.建设投资：+10％012345151635126411127591016613909191261390919126139091912613909196633012610684.建设投资：－10％012345151628724011127591016013909191261390919126139091912613909196030012687401NPV(IRR)=－1068(P/F,IRR,1)－351(P/F,IRR,2)0366(P/F,IRR,4)+(1390－919－126)(F/A,IRR,3)02264(P/F,IRR,3)+(1112－759－101)(P/F,IRR,3)04(P/F,IRR,16)+(330+66)(P/F,IRR,16)=0∴IRR=16.1%055.建设投资：+20％01234515163832881112759101721390919126139091912613909191261390919723601261165NPV(IRR)=－1165(P/F,IRR,1)－383(P/F,IRR,2)01288(P/F,IRR,3)+(1112－759－101)(P/F,IRR,3)0272(P/F,IRR,4)+(1390－919－126)(F/A,IRR,3)03(P/F,IRR,16)+(360+72)(P/F,IRR,16)=004∴IRR=14.8%0501240(P/F,IRR,3)+(1112－759－101)(P/F,IRR,3)0260(P/F,IRR,4)+(1390－919－126)(F/A,IRR,3)03(P/F,IRR,16)+(300+60)(P/F,IRR,16)=004∴IRR=19.6%NPV(IRR)=－874(P/F,IRR,1)－287(P/F,IRR,2)6.经营成本：+10％01234515163192401112835101601390126139012613901261390603001269711011101110111011240(P/F,IRR,3)+(1112－835－101)(P/F,IRR,3)01(P/F,IRR,16)+(300+60)(P/F,IRR,16)=00360(P/F,IRR,4)+(