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毕马威-2024全球经济展望(英)-2023.12_市场营销策划_重点报告202301204_doc.docx

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GlobalEconomicOutlook

December2023

home.kpmg/globaleconomicoutlook

Global

GlobalEconomicOutlook–December2023

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?2023CopyrightownedbyoneormoreoftheKPMGInternationalentities.KPMGInternationalentitiesprovidenoservicestoclients.Allrightsreserved.

Introduction

Athemethat’sbecomealltoofamiliarinKPMG’sGlobalEconomicOutlookisuncertainty.Formany,2023wasanotheryearwhenthemedicineattimesfeltworsethantheillness.Centralbankstightenedtheirbeltswithtoughmonetarypoliciesaimedatreigninginspirallinginflation.Itappearstohavepaidoff,butatthecostofeconomicstagnationformanyregionsandacontinuedsqueezeonconsumerspending.

KPMG’slatestGlobalEconomicOutlookoffersasenseofwhatliesahead,withtheclearhealthwarningonceagainthatwe’reindeeplyuncertaintimes,andthereforeourpredictionsarejustthat–aforecastbasedonthefewcertaintiesthatexistrightnowandthelong-termtrendsthatcanhelpuspiecetogetheracomplexfuture.

Ispentthefinalmonthof2023inDubai,joiningdelegatesatCOP28.Thesummitwasfocusedontheclimatecrisisandpotentialsolutionsthatcouldunlockamoresustainablefuture,but–forme–itreflectedsomeofthewiderchallengesfacingeconomiesandpoliticalleadersrightnow.Thereweresomepositiveoutcomes,butmanyissuesremainedunresolved.Theeconomicoutlookisworryinglysimilar.

Inourlatestreport,oureconomistsbasedaroundtheworldoffertheirviewontheeconomiclandscapeinthecomingmonthsandyears.Whilethestoryvariesfromcountrytocountry,therearesomeclearuniversalthemes.Monetarypolicyhas

hadabigimpactonoutputandgrowthprospectsandthere’sgrowingpressureforittoease.Whetherthathappensremainstobeseen.Manycentralbanksarestuckbetweenarockandahardplace,cautiousthatlooseningthescrewscouldsimplyleadtoaninflationaryrebound.

Therearealsofears

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