毕马威-2024全球经济展望(英)-2023.12_市场营销策划_重点报告202301204_doc.docx
GlobalEconomicOutlook
December2023
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GlobalEconomicOutlook–December2023
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Introduction
Athemethat’sbecomealltoofamiliarinKPMG’sGlobalEconomicOutlookisuncertainty.Formany,2023wasanotheryearwhenthemedicineattimesfeltworsethantheillness.Centralbankstightenedtheirbeltswithtoughmonetarypoliciesaimedatreigninginspirallinginflation.Itappearstohavepaidoff,butatthecostofeconomicstagnationformanyregionsandacontinuedsqueezeonconsumerspending.
KPMG’slatestGlobalEconomicOutlookoffersasenseofwhatliesahead,withtheclearhealthwarningonceagainthatwe’reindeeplyuncertaintimes,andthereforeourpredictionsarejustthat–aforecastbasedonthefewcertaintiesthatexistrightnowandthelong-termtrendsthatcanhelpuspiecetogetheracomplexfuture.
Ispentthefinalmonthof2023inDubai,joiningdelegatesatCOP28.Thesummitwasfocusedontheclimatecrisisandpotentialsolutionsthatcouldunlockamoresustainablefuture,but–forme–itreflectedsomeofthewiderchallengesfacingeconomiesandpoliticalleadersrightnow.Thereweresomepositiveoutcomes,butmanyissuesremainedunresolved.Theeconomicoutlookisworryinglysimilar.
Inourlatestreport,oureconomistsbasedaroundtheworldoffertheirviewontheeconomiclandscapeinthecomingmonthsandyears.Whilethestoryvariesfromcountrytocountry,therearesomeclearuniversalthemes.Monetarypolicyhas
hadabigimpactonoutputandgrowthprospectsandthere’sgrowingpressureforittoease.Whetherthathappensremainstobeseen.Manycentralbanksarestuckbetweenarockandahardplace,cautiousthatlooseningthescrewscouldsimplyleadtoaninflationaryrebound.
Therearealsofears