combining computational fluid dynamics and agent-based modeling a new approach to evacuation planning结合计算流体力学和基于主体建模的新方法疏散计划.pdf

Combining Computational Fluid Dynamics and Agent- Based Modeling: A New Approach to Evacuation Planning 1,2,3 4 5 Joshua M. Epstein *, Ramesh Pankajakshan , Ross A. Hammond 1 Center for Advanced Modeling, Department of Emergency Medicine, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America, 2 External Faculty, Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States of America, 3 Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America, 4 SimCenter: National Center for Computational Engineering, University of Tennessee, Chattanooga, Tennessee, United States of America, 5 Center on Social Dynamics and Policy, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, Washington D.C., United States of America Abstract We introduce a novel hybrid of two fields—Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)—as a powerful new technique for urban evacuation planning. CFD is a predominant technique for modeling airborne transport of contaminants, while ABM is a powerful approach for modeling social dynamics in populations of adaptive individuals. The hybrid CFD-ABM method is capable of simulating how large, spatially-distributed populations might respond to a physically realistic contaminant plume. We demonstrate the overall feasibility of CFD-ABM evacuation design, using the case of a hypothetical aerosol release in Los Angeles to explore potential effectiveness of various policy regimes. We conclude by arguing that this new approach can be powerfully applied to arbitrary population centers, offering an unprecedented preparedness and catastrophic event response tool. Citation: Epstein JM, Pankajakshan R, Hammond RA (2011) Combining Computational Fluid Dynamics