current and future patterns of global marine mammal biodiversity当前和未来的全球海洋哺乳动物生物多样性的模式.pdf

Current and Future Patterns of Global Marine Mammal Biodiversity 1 2¤a,¤b 3 4 2 Kristin Kaschner *, Derek P. Tittensor , Jonathan Ready , Tim Gerrodette , Boris Worm 1 Evolutionary Biology and Ecology Lab, Institute of Zoology, Albert-Ludwigs-University, Freiburg, Germany, 2 Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova ´ ´ Scotia, Canada, 3 Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Studies, Universidade Federal do Para – Campus de Braganc¸a, Braganc¸a, Para, Brazil, 4 Protected Resources Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, La Jolla, California, United States of America Abstract Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct h