第三讲 国际收支决定理论与国际收支调节政策.ppt

国际收支调节的弹性分析法 弹性分析的基本概念 马歇尔－勒纳条件Marshall–Lerner condition Mathematical derivation Mathematical derivation J曲线 The J curve J曲线 The J curve The J curve shows the effect of a devaluation of a currency on the net export (exports minus imports). When the devaluation takes place at t the net export falls from A to B, since the level of import is unchanged, but the currency is worth less. As time goes on the net export will gradually change since consumers buy less imported goods, and other countries buy more goods from the country due to the lower real price. At C the net export break even. With time the net export will find equilibrium. 国际收支调节的支出分析法absorption approach to the balance of payments The absorption approach to BOP and exchange rate determination Concepts and exemplification What is absorption? A nation’s total expenditures on final goods and services The absorption approach: Concept BOP is determined by real national income and its absorption In other words, BOP is determined by how much is produced and how much is consumed Definitions Absorption (a): a = c + inv + g + imp Real income (y): y = c + inv + g + exp Corollary y-a = exp - imp = current account The current account is determined by the difference between income (how much is produced) and absorption (how much is consumed internally) Important When internal consumption surpasses national income a current account deficit will result When internal consumption is lower than national income a current account surplus will result The impact of economic expansions and contractions During economic expansions both income and absorption will increase. The change in the current account depends on which one will rise faster. During economic contractions both income and absorption will decrease. The change in the current account depends on which one will fall faster. Policy implications Governments have incentives to fiddle with absorption by: changing the volume of the government expenditures l