德意志银行 2010年亚洲新兴市场在这次危 机中的作用及关键中期趋势.pdf

Emerging Asia Role in the crisis key medium term trends Steffen Dyck, Sep 2010 Agenda 1 Emerging Asia’s performance during the crisis 2 Key medium term trends 3 Summary conclusion Steffen Dyck, Sep 2010 Page 2 1 Asian* economies managed well during the global recession Much milder slowdown in Asia But aggregate figures masked by than elsewhere strong China India growth Real GDP, % yoy Quarterly real GDP growth, % yoy 15 12 10 10 8 6 5 4 0 2 0 -5 -2 -10 -4 00 02 04 06 08 10 -6 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 China India NIEs* ASEAN NJA EEMEA LatAm G-7 *Newly industrialised economies: Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Source: DB Research Source: IHS Global Insight *Throughout this presentation Asia refers to Non-Japan Asia (NJA) Steffen Dyck, Sep 2010 Page 3 1 Asia driving the strong economic recovery… EMs already above pre-crisis level EM recovery driven by Asia Industrial production, Index (Jan 2007=100)