使用供应商管理库存提高预测外文翻译.doc

外 文 翻 译 原文： Use VMI To Improve Forecasting Ive always been a big believer that using downstream supply chain information can improve demand forecasting and planning. Ive written several columns that discussed various aspects of this during my 12-year tenure in writing for the Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF). These discussed the potential use of downstream data including (as Ive defined them): customers orders and replenishment forecasts, retailer warehouse withdrawals, Point-of-Sale (POS) data and forecasts. Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI), and Collaborative, Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) information. In these articles I proposed that one should be able to improve forecasting by leveraging these types of information since they are generated closer to the consumer. As such, demand changes ought to be detected sooner and be subject to less distortion from the Bull Whip effect that adds more noise to consumption demand as it moves up the supply chain. Generally, Ive been preaching that these downstream data sources ought to provide much better demand signals than a manufacturers orders and shipments. VMI Data Ought To Be Useful Almost seven years ago I wrote an article in the Winter 2001/2002 issue of the JBF, titled VMI Can Be Good for Your Forecasting Health. In it I talked about the fact that the history of VMI had been mixed because often customers, such as retailers, had been coercing their suppliers to manage their inventories for them for free, with little perceived gain to the suppliers. However, I maintained that when done well, VMI programs can improve intercompany supply chain operations because they help a supplier better coordinate product flow to customers. In this regard the benefits of VMI include ensuring that: ? A manufacturing customers production operations are not disrupted by material shortages. ? A distributor or retailer customer is not caught short on product availability. ? Neither a customer nor its supplier is ho