《我国对外贸易顺差的成因、影响及政策分析》-毕业论文（设计）.doc

PAGE 硕士学位论文 我国对外贸易顺差的成因、影响及政策分析 Chinas foreign trade surplus of cause, effects and policy analysis 申请人： 学科领域：国际贸易 指导教师： 2011年10月25日 摘要 本文针对近儿年来我国对外贸易顺差大幅增长的现实，对外贸顺差的发展趋势进行了分析，指出了当前我国贸易顺差的结构性特点。在此基础上，本文从国内国际两个方面分析了产生巨额贸易顺差的原因，并探讨了持续扩大的贸易顺差对我国宏观经济的影响，在肯定贸易顺差合理性的同时，着重阐述了巨额贸易顺差给我国经济运行带来的不可忽视的风险。贸易顺差的持续扩大加剧了我国与欧美等贸易大国的贸易摩擦，强化了投机者对人民币的升值预期，影响了我国货币政策的独立性，使我国的外贸依存度不断提高，最终影响了我国经济的可持续性增长。 本文在分析了我国外贸顺差特点、成因及影响的基础上，探讨了调整对外贸易顺差的政策建议。本文认为应当从以下六个方面着手循序渐进地缓解对外贸易顺差高速增长的现象，逐步达到国际收支基本平衡和国民经济的均衡发展。第一，拉动内需，转变经济增长方式;第二，合理限制出口，积极扩大进口;第三，推动我国产业结构升级，实施外贸多元化;第四，合理引导我国外汇储备的使用;第五，慎重应对人民币汇率升值压力与汇率机制改革;第六，加强国际合作与协调，妥善处理贸易摩擦。 主题词: 贸易顺差 扩大内需 进出口政策 Abstract This paper focus on the dramatic increase of China’s trade surplus.The tendency of China’s trade surplus was analyzed and the structural features of trade surpius were represented.The reasons of generation of China’s trade surplus were analyzed internally and externally.The macroeconomics impact on China’s trade surplus was discussed. China’s trade surplus has rationalizations; nevertheless the continued China’s high trade surplus generated a lot of assignable risks.Firstly, the trade surplus exacerbates the trade frictions between China and trading nations.Secondly,the trade surplus strengthens the speculators right to the expectation of a appreciation of the RMB.Thirdly,the trade surplus influences monetary policy independence.Fourthly,the trade surplus makes our country’s dependence on foreign trade continue to increase.The continuing trade surplus finally is not propitious for the sustainnable development of economy. Based on features,causes and impacts of China’s trade surplus,adjustment policies of trade surplus are discussed from six aspects.The policies are implemented to achieve the balance of international payments and lalanced development of economy.Firstly,expanding donmestic demand,and transforming the patterns of economic growth;seconfly,adjustment of the import and export policy to motivate import and restrict of export;th