appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases适当的模型管理传染病.pdf

Open access, freely available online PLoS MEDICINE Appropriate Models for the Management of Infectious Diseases 1* 1 2 Helen J. Wearing , Pejman Rohani , Matt J. Keeling 1 Institute of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America, 2 Department of Biological Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom Competing Interests: The authors A B S T R A C T have declared that no competing interests exist. Background Author Contributions: PR con- ceived the idea. HJW, PR, and MJK Mathematical models have become invaluable management tools for epidemiologists, both designed the study. HJW formulated shedding light on the mechanisms underlying observed dynamics as well as making and analyzed the models. PR, HJW, quantitative predictions on the effectiveness of different control measures. Here, we explain and MJK contributed to writing the paper. how substantial biases are introduced by two important, yet largely ignored, assumptions at the core of the vast majority of such models. Academic Editor: Stephen P. Ellner, Cornell University, United States of America Methods and Findings Citation: Wearing HJ, Rohani P, First, we use analytical methods to show that (i) ignoring the latent period or (ii) making the Keeling MJ (2005) Appropriate models for the management of common assumption of exponentially distributed latent and infectious periods (when including infectious diseases. PLoS Med 2(7): the latent period) always results in underestimating the basic re