The Money Supply in Macroeconomics （宏观经济学的货币供应）.pdf

The Money Supply in Macroeconomics Peter Howells* ABSTRACT The notion that the quantity of money in an economy might be endogenously determined has a long history. Even so, it has never been part of mainstream economic thinking which has remained dominated by the view that the policymaker somehow controls the stock of money and that interest rates are market-determined. However, the need to design and operate a monetary policy that works for modern economies as they are currently constructed, has led to the emergence of the so-called ‘new consensus macroeconomics’ in which it is recognised that the policymaker sets a short-term interest rate and the quantities of money and credit are demand-determined. This paper looks at the way in which this ‘new consensus’ is (at last) forcing a recognition, in the teaching of money, that the money supply is endogenously determined. It also shows how we can take this further by adding a banking sector to a model of the real economy in which the money supply is endogenously determined. The paper ends by showing how some of the issues currently emerging in the new consensus are very closely related to earlier debates amongst post Keynesian economists. *Professor of Monetary Economics, Centre for Global Finance, Bristol Business School, UWE Bristol. UK Tel: (+44) (0)117 3282124 1 The Money Supply in Macroeconomics Peter Howells 1. Introduction For many years, the role of money and monetary policy in macroeconomics has been represented by the IS/LM model, developed originally by Sir John Hicks (1937) to capture the essential ideas of Keynes’s (1936) General Theory in a simple and tractable form. Its survival as the centrepiece of interme