the century ahead searching for sustainability未来世纪寻找可持续性.pdf

Sustainability 2010, 2, 2626-2651; doi:10.3390/su2082626 OPEN ACCESS sustainability ISSN 2071-1050 /journal/sustainability Article The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability Paul D. Raskin *, Christi Electris and Richard A. Rosen Tellus Institute, 11 Arlington Street, Boston, MA 02116, USA; E-Mails: celectris@ (C.E.); rrosen@ (R.A.R) * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: praskin@; Tel.: +1-617-266-5400; Fax: +1-617-266-8303. Received: 10 July 2010; in revisedform: 12 August 2010 / Accepted: 17 August 2010 / Published: 20 August 2010 Abstract: The global future lies before us as a highly uncertain and contested landscape with numerous perils along the way. This study explores possible pathways to sustainability by considering in quantitative detail four contrasting scenarios for the twenty-first century. The analysis reveals vividly the risks of conventional development approaches and the real danger of socio-ecological descent. Nonetheless, the paper underscores that a Great Transition scenario—turning toward a civilization of enhanced human well-being and environmental resilience—remains an option, and identifies a suite of strategic and value changes for getting there. A fundamental shift in the development paradigm is found to be an urgent necessity for assuring a sustainable future and, as well, a hopeful opportunity for creating a world of enriched lives, human amity, and a healthy ecosphere. Keywords: sustainability; scenarios; global; simulation; development;