assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk an original multi-criteria modeling approach黄热病疫情风险评估一个原始的多目标建模方法.pdf

Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach 1 2 1 3 4 5 Sylvie Briand *, Ariel Beresniak , Tim Nguyen , Tajoua Yonli , Gerard Duru , Chantal Kambire , William Perea1, The Yellow Fever Risk Assessment Group (YF-RAG) 1 Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2 Liraes, Paris-Descartes University, Paris, France, 3 Institut Bioforce ´ Developpement Afrique, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso, 4 Claude-Bernard University, Villeurbanne, France, 5 World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Country Office, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso Abstract Background: Yellow fever (YF) virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability) and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. Methods and Findings: We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with ‘‘exposure’’ to virus/vector and one with ‘‘susceptibility’’ of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional