2006年 月 中 国 工 业 经 济 - 中国社会科学院.pdf

对我国房价与地价相互关系的再检验 黄健柏 江飞涛 陈伟刚 内容摘要： 近年来，随着我国房价的整体快速上涨和土地出让方式改革，理论界和实务界对房 价和地价相互关系的争论十分激烈，对两者相互关系的实证研究是判别各方观点正确与 否的关键。已有的实证研究文献均采用Granger 因果检验测定二者的相互关系，但由于 在方法上存在一定的局限性，这些研究难以进一步刻画两者之间的动态联系以及政策变 化对其相互关系的影响。本文在基于向量自回归类模型的方差分解这一分析框架下将前 人实证研究的方法和结论统一在一个新的分析框架内，并完整而细腻地描述了二者的相 互关系。更为重要的是，我们的计量分析刻画出政策变动导致的二者之间反应模式的变 化，为正确认识土地出让方式改革的实际效果提供了坚实的实证基础。我们的研究结果 表明，土地出让制度改革不是近年来房价上涨的主要原因。 关键词： 房价变动 地价变动 协整 向量误差修正模型 方差分解 Further test of the relationship between the housing price and the land price HUANG Jian-Bo, JIANG Fei-Tao, CHEN Wei-Gang （Business School of Central South University, ChangSha, 410083, China） Recent years with the holistic fast rise of our countrys housing price and the reform of the land lease institution, there is abundant discussion about the relationship between the housing price and the land price among the theoretician and the entrepreneur. The empirical research on the relationship between them becomes the key which distinguishes between right and wrong among the different sides different views. It mainly used the Granger causality test presented by Granger according to the existing empirical research papers on the relationship between the domestic housing price and the land price. Due to some limitation of the method, the research can hardly further depict the dynamic relationship and the effect of the political change towards the relation between the two. In this paper we use the variance decomposition of the vector error correction model (VECM) to perfectly and detailedly show the relationship between the housing price and the land price. Whats more important, our quantitative analysis depicts the effect of the policy alteration towards the relation between them. And it also gives the solid demonstration foundation for the correct cognition towards the real effect of the land