我国CPI波动的影响因素.pdf

第2012 年第10 期 商 业 经 济 No.10 ，2012 （总第408 期） SHANGYE JINGJI Total No.408 [文章编号] 1009- 6043（2012）10- 0001- 03 我国CPI 波动的影响因素研究 危 玲 （上海理工大学 管理学院， 上海 200093） [摘 要] 运用协整系统中的长短期驱动力检验技术，对CPI 波动的长短期驱动力进行理论以及实证方面的研究结 果是：对CPI 的波动具有长期驱动力的是食品、烟酒及用品、居住、交通通讯、娱乐教育文化用品及服务这5 类价格指数；既 具有长期驱动力、又具有短期驱动力的是食品、交通通讯、娱乐教育文化用品及服务这3 类价格指数。政府在关注CPI 整体 面的同时，短期内可重点控制后3 类价格指数；长期看则主要关注前5 类商品的价格指数。在此基础上采用积极的政策措 施，增强有效需求；健全市场自我完善的机制；完善社会保障体制；完善社会体系结构，提升社会整体抗通货膨胀能力。 [关键词] 居民消费物价指数；CPI 分类；影响因素；研究 [中图分类号] F202 [文献标识码] A The Factors Influencing Chinas CPI Fluctuation WEI Ling Abstract: Using the transitory and permanent driving force examination technique of co- integration system, the author conducts theoreti- cal and empirical study of the transitory and permanent driving force to the fluctuation of CPI. The paper concludes that five price indexes, food; tobacco, alcohol and supplies; housing; transportation and communication; amusement, education, writing materials and service have permanent driving force to the fluctuation of CPI, among which three indexes, food; transportation and communication; amusement, educa- tion, and writing materials have both transitory and permanent driving force. In addition to the change of all indexes, the government may focus on the latter three indexes in the short run and focus on the former five indexes in the long run. On this basis, the government shall take proactive measures to increase effective demand, improve the markets self- improvement mechanism, perfect the social security sys- tem and the social architecture, and raise the inflation resistance ability of the whole society. Key words: CPI, CPI classification,