《IMF 2016经济展望》.pdf

FOR RELEASE: In Washington, D.C.: 9:15 A.M., October 11, 2013 Asia and Pacific Economic Outlook: October 2013 Update Asia has not been spared by the recent re-pr icing of financial assets in emerging markets, encountering a wave of capital outflows in the pastfew months. The overall impact has, so far, been manageable although some countries have been subject to greater stress. Tighter global liquidity–– and homegrown structural impediments in some countries––will weigh on growth, but for most economies the impact should be partly offset by a gradual pickup in exports to advanced economies and resilient domestic demand. If, however, conditions tighten further we are likely to see even greater differentiation across the region. Those with strong fundamentals and policy credibility will be able to offset imported tightening through lower policy rates and fiscal support. Others that have delayed reforms, left fiscal vulnerabilities untackled, or tolerated too-high inflation may be forced to respond with a procyclical policy tightening. Announcing credible medium-term reforms would rebuild confidence and ease policy trade-offs. Figure 1. Asia: Financial Conditions Index (FCI) A more complex global environment (Index; increase – loosening of financial conditions) 1 Australia, Japan, and New Zealand China East Asia (excl. China) ASEAN India Since the April 2013 Regional Economic 10