australias dengue risk driven by human adaptation to climate change澳大利亚的登革热风险是受人类适应气候变化的影响.pdf

Australia’s Dengue Risk Driven by Human Adaptation to Climate Change 1,2 3 4 1 Nigel W. Beebe *, Robert D. Cooper , Pipi Mottram , Anthony W. Sweeney 1 School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia, 2 CSIRO Entomology, Long Pocket Laboratories, Indooroopilly, Queensland, Australia, 3 Australian Army Malaria Institute, Gallipoli Barracks, Enoggera, Queensland, Australia, 4 Communicable Diseases Branch, Queensland Health, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia Abstract Background: The reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this region’s urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti from Queensland, where it remains endemic, back into New South Wales and other populated centres in Australia, along with the associated emerging and re-emerging dengue risk if the virus was to be introduced. Methodology/Principal Findings: Having collated the known distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we built distributional models using a genetic algorithm to project Ae. aegypti’s distribution under today’s climate and under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 and compared the outputs to published theoretical temperature limits. Incongruence identified between the models and theoretical temperature limits highlighted the difficulty of using point occurrence data to study a species whose distribution is