鄱阳湖与长江干流洪水遭遇规律及风险分析.pdf

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2014, 3, 502-510 Published Online December 2014 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2014.36062 Flood Coincidence Risk Analysis for the Middle Yangtze River and Poyang Lake 1 2 2 1 1 Tianyuan Li , Shenglian Guo , Zhangjun Liu , Guoqiang Liu , Sidong Zeng 1 Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Wuhan 2 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan Email: tyli1986@ th th th Received: Oct. 10 , 2014; revised: Nov. 18 , 2014; accepted: Nov. 20 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract The von Mises distribution was used to fit the series of annual maximum flood occurrence and in- terval dates. The Copula functions were used to establish the bivariate joint distribution of annual maximum flood occurrence dates and the multivariate joint distribution of interval dates and flood magnitude. The flood coincidence risk of annual maximum flood occurrence date, flood magnitude and flood process were analyzed based on the data series of Hankou and Hukou hy- drological stations. The results show that the highest flood coincidence risk of annual maximum flood occurrence date and 7-day flood process between the middle Yangtze River and Poyang Lake may reach to 0.058% (on July 16th) and 7.31% respectively during the flood season. The research can provide scientific basis for Poyang