Organizational Churn A Roll of the Dice-2015美赛原版-L文.pdf

Team Control Number For office use only For office use only T1 ________________ 37075 F1 ________________ T2 ________________ F2 ________________ T3 ________________ F3 ________________ Problem Chosen T4 ________________ F4 ________________ C 2015 Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM) Summary Sheet Organizational Churn: A Roll of the Dice? Network science is essential in many interdisciplinary studies due to its potential to deal with complex systems. Since the organization of ICM forms a network structure, network science can be utilized to analyze dynamic processes within the company, e.g. the diffusion effects of organizational churn. In this paper, we construct a Human Capital network according to the hierarchical structure of ICM and create a simple yet effective model to capture the dynamic processes, which includes organizational churn, promotion and recruitment. For organizational churn, we propose and implement our probabilistic churn model inspired by Bayesian learning principles, which estimates and updates the likelihood of individual churn using the Beta-Binomial distribution. Then we develop three promotion measures based on working experience, inclination to churn, and closeness centrality. Moreover, we propose several means of controlling the recruitment rate from the HR managers perspective, and further define some key concepts for evaluation, such as dissatisfaction and productivity. Through