基于引力模型的中国运输服务贸易影响因素研究的中期报告.docx

基于引力模型的中国运输服务贸易影响因素研究的中期报告 摘要： 本文基于引力模型，研究了中国运输服务贸易的影响因素。通过对2000-2018年的数据进行分析，本文发现，中国的GDP、人口、贸易自由化程度等因素对运输服务贸易有显著的正向影响，而国际运输成本对运输服务贸易有负向影响。此外，中国与不同经济体间的地理距离、人民币实际有效汇率、同贸易伙伴之间的关系等因素也对运输服务贸易产生了影响。 研究意义： 本研究旨在探索中国运输服务贸易的影响因素，对于中国制定相关政策、提升服务贸易竞争力具有重要的指导意义。 关键词： 引力模型；运输服务贸易；影响因素；中国 Abstract: Based on the gravity model, this paper studies the influencing factors of Chinas transport service trade. Through the analysis of data from 2000 to 2018, this paper finds that Chinas GDP, population, degree of trade liberalization and other factors have a significant positive impact on transport service trade, while international transportation costs have a negative impact on transport service trade. In addition, factors such as the geographic distance between China and different economies, the effective exchange rate of the renminbi, and the relationship between the same trading partners have also affected transport service trade. Research significance: This study aims to explore the influencing factors of Chinas transport service trade, which is of great guiding significance for China to formulate relevant policies and enhance its service trade competitiveness. Keywords: Gravity model, transport service trade, influencing factors, China.