中国与东盟木质林产品贸易影响因素与贸易潜力的分析基于引力模型.doc

中国与东盟木质林产品贸易影响因素与 贸易潜力的分析一一基于引力模型 曹玉昆刘意 曹玉昆刘意 东北林业大学经济管理学院 以2006-2015年联合国贸易数据库整理的数据为棊础，结合屮国与东盟十国的 木质林产品贸易状况，利用扩展后的引力模型，分析木质林产品贸易的影响因 素，测算其贸易潸力。结果表明：中国与东盟木质林产品贸易的进出口总额大体 上呈现逐年递增的态势；国内生产总值、人口、森林资源禀赋差异、亚太经济合 作组织等因素对中国与东盟木质林产品贸易具有正相关作用，而距离、全球金融 危机等因素具有负相关作用；屮国和东盟各个国家的木质林产品贸易属于“贸易 开拓型”，双边木质林产品还有可开发的贸易潜力空间；双边可以发挥有利因素, 促进双边木质林产品贸易向更远发展。 关键词： 屮国一东盟;木质林产品;引力模型;影响因素;贸易潜力; 沈自峥（1987-）,女，河南平顶山人，硕士研究生，从事林产品国 际贸易研宄，（电话（ ） 812987444@。 吴国春（1955-）,男，黑龙江齐齐哈尔人，教授，博士生导师，从 事林产品国际贸易研究，（电话）0451 （ ） WUGC@nefu. edu. cn0 2017-07-05 基金：国家社会科学基金资助项FI （13BJY032） The Analysis of Influencing Factors and Potential on Wooden Forest Products Trade between China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN) :Research Based on Gravity Model SHEN Zizheng WU Guochun CAO Yukun LIU Yi College of Economics and Management， Northeast Forestry University; Abstract： (l)Background ASEAN is China’s important partner in trade of wooden forest products. There are 3countries from ASEAN accounting for the top five position of China’s importing countries in wooden forest products’ trade. Association of Southeast Asian Nations is called for short as ASEAN, which has a close connection with China geographically and has a more intimate relation with China in trade because of its status as important countries along the Belt and Road. In 2010, China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) was established with years of effort by both China and ASEAN, which made bilateral trade close and greatly potential. In 2015, the volume of import and export of China’s wooden forest products towards ASEAN reached 11.841 billion dollars, accounting for 11. 77%of the total foreign trade volume of China’s wooden forest products. Studying the trade of wooden forest products between China and ASEAN not only has significant guiding meaning to sustainable and sound development of bilateral trade of wooden forest products, but also has great promoting significance to carry out the economic initiative about the Belt and R