交通安全外文翻译文献中英文.doc

外文文献翻译 () 英文原文 POSSIBILITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF ACCIDENT ANALYSIS S.Oppe Abstraet Accident statistics, especially collected at a national level are particularly useful for the description, monitoring and prognosis of accident developments, the detection of positive and negative safety developments, the definition of safety targets and the (product) evaluation of long term and large scale safety measures. The application of accident analysis is strongly limited for problem analysis, prospective and retrospective safety analysis on newly developed traffic systems or safety measures, as well as for (process) evaluation of special short term and small scale safety measures. There is an urgent need for the analysis of accidents in real time, in combination with background behavioural research. Automatic incident detection, combined with video recording of accidents may soon result in financially acceptable research. This type of research may eventually lead to a better understanding of the concept of risk in traffic and to well-established theories.? Keyword: Consequences; purposes; describe; Limitations; concerned; Accident Analysis; possibilities 1. Introduction. This paper is primarily based on personal experience concerning traffic safety, safety research and the role of accidents analysis in this research. These experiences resulted in rather philosophical opinions as well as more practical viewpoints on research methodology and statistical analysis. A number of these findings are published already elsewhere. From this lack of direct observation of accidents, a number of methodological problems arise, leading to continuous discussions about the interpretation of findings that cannot be tested directly. For a fruitful discussion of these methodological problems it is very informative to look at a real accident on video. It then turns out that most of the relevant information used to explain the accident will be missing in the accident record. In-depth studies also