2016年美国大学生数学建模E题英文版论文.docx

In this paper, a model is established to provide a measure of the ability of a region to provide clean water to meet the needs of its population, and find out the reason for the lack of water resources. Specific tasks are as follows:For Task 1: We establish a model. In the model, we think the supply of clean water depends on the amount of surface water, underground water and sewage purification. The water requirements are decided by the amount of life water, agricultural water and industrial water in the region. In water supply, surface water is affected by the annual average temperature, annual average precipitation and forest coverage rate. The groundwater is impacted by the annual average temperature, annual average precipitation. The agricultural water is affected by the population of the region and annual average precipitation. The GDP of the region influences the industrial water consumption. We use the principle of multivariate nonlinear regression to find out the regression coefficient. And then make sure its function. The ratio of water supply and water requirements is used as a measure of the ability of a region to provide clean water. We find that the ability of a region to provide clean water is good or not by comparing the ratio with 1.For Task 2: The model selects the Shandong Province of China as the testing region. We analyse the data of Chinas Shandong area between 2005 and 2014, and then crystallize the model through the thought of the function fitting and multivariate nonlinear regression. By the model, we think Shandong provinces ability to provide clean water is weak. And then from two aspects which physical shortage and shortage of economic, this paper analyses the causes of water shortage in Shandong Province, and thus test the applicability of the model.For Task 3: We select several factors affecting water supply and water demand badly, which is annual precipitation, annual average temperature, the forest coverage rate and population forecast