市场下跌时.ppt

City Median Sale Price Trends Case Study 4 – Using the data provided what is the market trend? Case Study 4 – Analysis of Data Case Study 4 – Analysis of Data * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents 4.6 Example—Analysis of Comparable Sales History * China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Slide * Part 4. Measuring the Market—Tools, cont. Tools—Statistical Analysis of the Mean or Median Sale Price In some situations, appraisers can use the average sale price in an area to gauge how the market is performing. The average sale price can be misleading if it is not interpreted correctly. If mortgage terms are less favorable, first-time buyers with high loan-to-value ratios will be most affected. Sometimes the average sale price in a market will rise when interest rates increase. This is not a result of appreciation; it occurs because the lower-priced homes are more negatively affected by higher interest rates. 65 * China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents The first column shows the value of every property in a neighborhood. The second column shows the mean and median when most sales are at the low end. The third column shows the mean and median when most sales are in the middle range. The fourth column shows the mean and median with all the sales at the high end. Analysis of the Mean or Median Sale Price * China Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and Agents Tools—Use Comparable Sales That Are Very Recent and No Adjustment Should Be Needed If the appraiser uses comparable sales that have very recently closed, these sales will be an indication of the current market. The best tool to deal with negative changes in the market is using current data and making no adjustments at all, although this is not always possible. Some appraisers also place all comparable sales on a grid in chronological order with the most recent first and the oldest