人民币升值出口贸易结构人民币实际有效汇率SITC贸易竞争优势.docx

摘要改革开放和中国进入WTO以后，作为拉动经济增长的四驾马车之一——出口便成为我国经济发展的强劲动力，出口总额不断增加。出口总额已由1978年的97.56亿美元激增至2015年的12157亿美元。同时，我国汇率制度不断完善改革，汇率的市场决定比重加大，人民币币值稳中有升。众所周知，人民币升值将提高进口原料价格，降低我国出口产品的廉价优势，为了应对人民币升值的压力，我国必须优化升级出口商品结构。本文从区域结构、部门结构和商品结构三方面考察出口结构，从出口额和产品竞争力两个方面研究人民币升值如何影响我国出口贸易结构。因此，本文用1994年-2014年数据进行实证分析，通过协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验和脉冲分析发现人民币和出口之间的相关关系。我国出口区域结构极不平衡，从产品出口额和竞争力方面看：人民币升值对初级产品和工业制成品有负面影响，其中对初级产品和资本密集型产品影响最大。但是高新技术部门的产品出口几乎不受人民币升值的影响。关键词：人民币升值，出口贸易结构，人民币实际有效汇率，SITC,贸易竞争优势ABSTRACTSince the reform and China entry into the WTO, export trade—one carriage of stimulating economic has become the strongest driving force for economic development. Exports have surged from $97.56 billion in 1978 to $12157 billion in 2015. Due to the rapid development of Chinese economy, This shows that the status of the RMB in the world is gradually improving, in the next period of time will be in a sustained appreciation of the stage. The action will ensure the value of the RMB.As we all know, the appreciation of the RMB will increase the cost, in order to cope with the pressure of appreciation, China must upgrade export commodity structure. The paper study from three aspects: regional, sector and commodity structure and this paper analysis the export structure from two aspects: export volume and competitiveness.The paper use co-integration test, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis to testify the data of 1994-2014. The study found that Chinese exports in the eastern, central and western export structure is extremely uneven, the RMB rate exchange having a greater negative impact on primary and manufactured goods. While the high-tech products are almost not affected.Key words：RMB appreciation, export structure, REER,SITC,TSC目录中文摘要 ………………………IABSTRACT ………………………II1 绪论 ………………………11.1研究背景 ………………………11.2 研究目的和意义 ………………………21.2.1 研究目的 ………………………21.2.2 研究意义 ………………………21.2.3 研究思路 ………………………31.3 研究内容、研究方法、创新与不足 ………………………31.3.1研究内容 ………………………31.3.2 研究方法 ………………………41.3.3 创新与不足 ………………………41.4 文献综述 ………………………41.4.1 贸易结构优化